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IHS Research Note: ‘What does the future hold in store for Access Control as a Service?’

In the latest Research Note from IHS, Blake Kozak – senior analyst for security and building technologies – discusses the future of hosted and managed access control solutions.

How will the electronic access control industry embrace the cloud in the coming years? Will Governments see the value in using commercial cloud resources? Will Governments create standards and Best Practice to ease restrictions on cloud storage across borders? Will operational expenditure (opex) options open the door to more SMB adoption? With the cost per door coming down for access control solutions, will the market opportunity for Access Control-as-a-Service (ACaaS) be negatively impacted?

Many questions still exist for the providers and future adopters of ACaaS. However, IHS expects ACaaS to thrive over the long term. The global market size is expected to exceed $530 million by 2018 and $1.8 billion by 2025.

Driving this growth will be the global adoption of cloud and virtualisation in other sectors not related to security in addition to the services associated with ACaaS.

During the first half of 2014, IHS calculated that multi-tenant data centre sales grew by 12.7% on a global basis. As it relates to access control, IHS expects the commoditisation of access control hardware to draw more attention to value-added services and ROI. As a result, channel partners and providers who are more specialised in IT, integration and mobility (ie remote connectivity) could see more growth in the long term.

How will the electronic access control industry embrace the cloud in the coming years?

How will the electronic access control industry embrace the cloud in the coming years?

Change of mindset

Although the access control industry is inherently slow to adopt new technologies, end user adoption and awareness is only half the battle.

Unless they were ‘born in the cloud’, most integrators and installers must change a long-standing mindset of selling boxes and components and instead begin selling services, features and concepts.

Additionally, they must know the IT side of the business and be able to answer questions regarding redundancy, certifications, hacking and other buzz phrases associated with cloud-based services and ACaaS.

Although it’s a difficult process, the access control industry is already moving in this direction. Starwood Hotels offer mobile keys over Bluetooth and banking headquarters have now installed wireless locks.

For the questions listed above, the short answer is: ‘Yes’ and the access control industry will continue to embrace the cloud, albeit at a much slower pace than originally projected.

Today, most providers of ACaaS do not specialise in ACaaS only. As a result, ACaaS remains a small portion of most monitoring stations and integrators’ overall business. One reason why these channel partners do not specialise in only ACaaS is because it wouldn’t be profitable, at least not at the beginning. With the ACaaS model, a large number of accounts is critical so many channel partners are even holding off on providing managed services until more accounts are added.

Additionally, most of these providers do not have a ‘true cloud’ model. The majority rely on only a handful of servers to provide services. Until end users begin requesting and using ACaaS in their droves and integration with video and other services transpires, IHS expects that this non-true cloud model will suffice for most security managers.

Furthermore, IHS expects that Governments will continue to embrace the cloud, but they must find ways to manage resource and security (which is often a lengthy and expensive venture). The US Government, for example, has already started travelling down this path with milCloud and other initiatives. For the EU, the European Cloud Partnership (Trusted Cloud) has acted as a starting point and blueprint for the future.

Flexibility of the offering

Overall, IHS expects ACaaS to continue to grow and expand due to the flexibility of the offering not provided by on-site solutions. For example, end users can manage the entire solution themselves while at the same time outsourcing the infrastructure maintenance. Alternatively, they can pay an additional fee and the entire solution will be managed for them – from monitoring and report printing through to badging and granting access rights, etc.

A further option is that the user chooses to only outsource certain tasks and they can lump a portion (in some cases 100%) of the hardware cost into a monthly fee, in turn reducing the barrier to entry.

Hindering growth is the continued decline in the cost per door (hardware), privacy concerns, web-based panels, custom billing, hacking, cross-border privacy agreements and market education.

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IHS Research Note: ‘Security system integration market worth an estimated $59.5 billion in 2013’

According to a new report from IHS, the world market for security system integration was valued at $59.5 billion in 2013, an increase of almost $5 billion from 2012. Paul Bremner (Senior Analyst for Video Surveillance – Security Services at IHS) outlines the detail.

The security system integration market consists of design, consultancy, installation, service and maintenance as well as the sales of video surveillance, physical access control and intruder alarm equipment. Revenue is expected to continue growing in excess of 9% through to 2018.

The market is characterised by a handful of large international players, numerous regional rivals and many local competitors. Such a competitive landscape means fierce competition abounds and that both integrators and installers must remain at the forefront of technology trends to be able to continue serving Best in Class integration packages to their customers.

One trend that integrators have been eyeing closely of late is Security as a Service (SaaS), whether it be Video Surveillance as a Service (VSaaS) or Access Control as a Service (ACaaS). Both offer promising opportunities for integrators to expand their recurring monthly revenue while simultaneously becoming closer to the end customer. This model also allows integrators to increase the value they bring to the table, and also lets them be seen as working together with their customers as partners.

As equipment margins continue to edge lower for integrators, driven by price declines in the equipment itself, it is the services that integrators can offer – as well as the added value they’re perceived to bring to the customer – that will ultimately prove to be the separator between the winners and losers in this market.

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IHS Research Note: $120 billion physical security industry continues to grow

In the latest Research Note from IHS, David Green (senior analyst for video surveillance and security services) provides a detailed and timely appraisal of the overall physical security equipment and services market.

The IHS report entitled ‘Physical Security Equipment and Services: 2014’ combines annual product revenues for the following equipment types: video surveillance, access control, intruder alarms, perimeter security, entrance control (pedestrian and vehicle), consumer video surveillance, thermal cameras and wireless infrastructure as well as service revenues assigned to Video Surveillance as a Service (VSaaS), Access Control as a Service (ACaaS), remote monitoring services and security systems integration.

According to IHS, strong market demand in an increasingly competitive physical security equipment and services industry is still driving overall revenue growth in all global regions.

Key findings of the latest IHS report are as follows:
• The market reached $120 billion in revenue during 2013, representing a 10.8% increase in market size compared to 2012
• The USA remains the largest country for spend with over $6.5 billion allocated solely on equipment, although China is edging closer to the Number One ranking each year
• One in every $5 spent on physical security equipment in Asia is for a Government building, not including other state-led facilities and installations such as airports or infrastructure
• On a global basis, no single company holds a market share greater than 5% for the physical security equipment and services sector

As global economic conditions continue to improve and budgets slowly increase, the physical security industry continues to perform strongly across the world. Growth in the number of projects employing different types of physical security equipment as a single solution is also increasing, often managed through the same platform.

Strong market demand in an increasingly competitive physical security equipment and services industry is still driving overall revenue growth in all global regions

Strong market demand in an increasingly competitive physical security equipment and services industry is still driving overall revenue growth in all global regions

Regional variations to be observed

Service-based offerings are proving popular in the American market as manufacturers and service providers look to bridge the gap between consumer-style business models and professional standard services.

Markets such as VSaaS or ACaaS only account for a small proportion of total revenues right now, but are expected to see some of the highest growth rates over the next five years.

IHS already sees this convergence in the supply market as well, with telecommunications companies now taking a greater interest in the security sector.

The EMEA market is much more evenly spread across all equipment and service types although it shares more similarities with the American market than with Asia. Equipment spending is particularly spread across different technology types. For example, entrance control accounts for almost 25% of all physical security equipment revenue which is higher than for any other region.

Asia remains the fastest-growing market in the world and has very different end user patterns and requirements. The equipment market in particular exhibits a strong focus on video surveillance, wherein 17% of all revenue spent on physical security equipment and services in China during 2013 was on just that (and often originating through larger Government-funded schemes or projects).

Recognising a competitive environment

While global revenues for physical security equipment and services continue to increase, any expectations that the security industry supply market would start to consolidate appear premature.

The Top 15 manufacturers and service providers accounted for only 22% of the global market in 2013 (a decrease of 3% on just 12 months earlier). Furthermore, no single company can boast a market share above 5%, in turn proving the fragmented nature of this growing industry and the high levels of competition.

One developing trend in this competitive environment is the rise of Asian-based manufacturers gaining market share outside of their domestic markets. In 2013, four of the Top 10 equipment manufacturers globally were based in Asia.

Companies that have performed strongly in their domestic market and have improved product quality are now starting to expand into new markets. This is a trend that IHS expects to continue and one which will drive increased price pressure in the American and EMEA markets over the next few years.

However, any price pressures are not currently strong enough to outweigh the increases in general market demand. This means that the overall market for physical security equipment and services is expected to continue with strong growth for the foreseeable future.

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IHS Research Note: ‘Residential Security – Something for everyone’

In the company’s latest Research Note, Blake Kozak (senior analyst for security and building technologies at IHS) discusses the impact of the ‘smart home’ on residential security.

The residential security market will never be the same. In 2012, several MSOs (multiple-system operators) in the USA began offering home automation in conjunction with security which has altered the perception and demand from end users. Prior to this paradigm shift, the use of a residential burglar alarm system was often a purchase to protect a property and, in many cases, an ‘after the fact’ purchase as a result of a break in.

While many reasons exist as to why a homeowner may purchase security equipment, the reason is no longer solely security, with many end users looking to add additional features which are both life safety and convenience-driven.

IHS estimates the world market for security devices in traditionally monitored homes [for example – ADT] to be worth about $2.9 billion in 2014 compared with $670 million for smart homes [for example – ADT Pulse].

By 2018, the revenue of smart homes is forecast to top $2.4 billion. That’s according to a recent report from IHS.

Smart Home Security: market size and rate of growth

Smart Home Security: market size and rate of growth

These rapid changes to the residential security market have been mostly positive. However, the influx of competitors has dramatically changed the make-up of this industry.

Ten years ago, professionally installed, centrally monitored systems were the main offer available to end users. However, this situation has changed. Today, products are offered by monitoring companies, MSOs, electric companies, retailers and DIY equipment manufacturers.

End users can find innovative products from new market entrants such as Google and Apple which, until recently, did not have an offering for the residential security or home automation space.

So what does this mean for the ‘smart’ residential security market moving forward? For manufacturers, it means that despite the increase in competition, the market offers ample opportunity for all due to the current low penetration rate of smart products.

For end users, it means more product/solution and pricing options are available than ever before.

Finally, as far as the dealers, installers and monitoring companies are concerned, the release of new and innovative products/solutions creates better sales opportunities by dint of being able to better meet customers’ needs and budgets.

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IHS Research Note: ‘Fire market to embrace wireless and IP technologies?’

In the latest Research Note from IHS, Justin Siller (manager of the security and building technologies group) informs on the global fire detection and suppression market.

Despite traditionally being slow to use new technologies, the fire market is starting to see increased interest in wireless and IP (Internet Protocol)-enabled products.

Wireless products have typically been used in specific applications where wiring is difficult (such as historical buildings), but outside of this the market has been virtually non-existent. Barriers such as reliability, price, variations in frequencies and installer reluctance have slowed adoption.

However, wireless is now beginning to be embraced. This is particularly true in the United Kingdom (UK) and Nordic countries.

Despite traditionally being slow to use new technologies, the fire market is starting to see increased interest in wireless and IP (Internet Protocol)-enabled products

Despite traditionally being slow to use new technologies, the fire market is starting to see increased interest in wireless and IP (Internet Protocol)-enabled products

IHS estimates some 25% of wireless product sales in Europe are taking place in the UK. End users are now willing to spend a bit more upfront for such solutions in exchange for lower installation costs as wiring is obviously unnecessary.

Focusing on the integrator/installer channel

The main barrier to mass-market adoption is the integrator/installer channel. Installers continue to be reluctant to market wireless products because they would need to complete more installations in order to realise the same financial returns as they do with wired installations.

That being the case, while end users see the benefits it remains the case that installers struggle to see any advantages.

For IP, increasing demand to integrate multiple building systems is driving acceptance. The managers of large facilities, centrally-managed chains and campus-style buildings want to connect multiple building systems together to gather higher levels of data on a single platform.

Surprisingly, most demand for these solutions is coming from the Middle East and South East Asia where legislation is more lax on integration standards. Here, building managers are integrating fire equipment with building management, security and lighting equipment to improve operational efficiencies and have fewer people reviewing/monitoring the information.

These moves are expected not only to increase the adoption for networked addressable panels but also enhance the adoption of more sophisticated communication channels such as IP and Modbus.

Demand for these technologies is expected to remain modest in the short-term. However, as other building technologies – such as access control, video surveillance, intruder alarms, building automation, elevators and visitor management systems – move to use wireless and IP-ready products, and are integrated, the fire industry may be hard-pressed not to follow suit.

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IHS Research Note: Canon’s acquisition of Milestone Systems

In the latest Research Note from IHS, Jon Cropley (principal analyst for IHS) notes Canon’s acquisition of Milestone Systems and the market for video management software.

Canon has signed an agreement to acquire Milestone Systems, which is a major supplier of video management software. It’ s planned that Milestone will continue to operate as an independent organisation.

Canon is currently a small player in the video surveillance market, but it has big ambitions. Back in August 2013, the company’s CEO Fujio Mitarai spoke about security cameras becoming an “important pillar” for the company and the market having “limitless possibilities for growth.”

This acquisition shows that Canon is serious in its intentions.

When it comes to surveillance, Canon currently only sells security cameras. The acquisition of Milestone allows it to offer customers a security solution combining cameras and either video management software or network video recorders.

It also provides the company with access to Milestone’s large customer base, particularly in regions outside of Canon’s home market of Japan.

IHS estimates that Milestone was the largest supplier of video management software in 2013, commanding over 7% of a global market worth over $900 million.

Canon is a strong brand in the consumer electronics market. It is well-known as a supplier of digital cameras, camcorders and professional broadcast cameras. It plans to leverage this brand reputation in the video surveillance market.

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IHS Research Note: ‘Global Video Surveillance Market – Latest Trends’

In the latest Research Note to be produced by market analyst HIS, principal analyst Jon Cropley provides information on current trends in the market for video surveillance equipment.

According to recently published estimates issued by the Video Surveillance Intelligence Service (VSIS) at HIS, the world market for video surveillance equipment grew by almost 7% in 2013.

The VSIS also reveals that the ongoing transition from analogue to network equipment accelerated last year, with revenues from network solutions higher in all four major world regions analysed (ie the EMEA, the Americas, China and Asia).

IHS forecasts that the pace of transition will continue to be rapid in 2014 and 2015 before slowing slightly from 2016 onwards. In the next two years, a number of major vendors will continue focusing their efforts on network equipment at the expense of analogue.

According to recently published estimates issued by the Video Surveillance Intelligence Service (VSIS) at HIS, the world market for video surveillance equipment grew by almost 7% in 2013

According to recently published estimates issued by the Video Surveillance Intelligence Service (VSIS) at HIS, the world market for video surveillance equipment grew by almost 7% in 2013

Global video surveillance equipment revenue in 2014 is expected to rise to $15.0 billion, up from $13.5 billion in 2013.

IHS has just added new global and regional market statistics, forecasts and market share estimates to its Video Surveillance Intelligence Service.

Key findings about the video surveillance market

In addition to the trends above, other key findings include the following observations:

• A number of Chinese suppliers are estimated to have gained market share in regions outside China in 2013. They tend to offer products with low prices, and this has been a major factor in high average price erosion in those regions
• China is estimated to have been the largest regional market for video surveillance equipment, accounting for a third of global revenues in 2013
• In terms of revenues, last year the market for network cameras was much larger than the analogue camera market. However, unit shipments of network cameras are not forecast to exceed those of analogue cameras until later in the decade
• Forecasts for network cameras with 4 Megapixels and above have increased. Growth in demand for 180/360 degree network cameras and 4K cameras is a major reason
• The supply of video surveillance equipment remains highly fragmented. The 15 largest suppliers only accounted for just over half the market in 2013
• Although declining, shipments of analogue cameras and DVRs will remain high throughout the forecast period

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